Election 2019 is upon us and India has voted in two phases already (around 190 seats). Reporting of exit polls is prohibited. Hence we will get to know a clear picture, not before 19th May. However, my analysis is that BJP vote share which was 31% in 2014 is bound to go up riding on Modi phenomenon. I predict the vote share to cross 35% in 2019, which is a massive jump over 2014. Let me explain how.
- UP Factor: Regardless of voices in main stream media, Modi wave is intact and is only growing. Even in UP, despite the Mahagathbandhan, BJP vote share will remain intact, if not go up. In 2014 BJP polled 42.63% votes compared to 41.35% in 2017. I state with full responsibility that in 2019 vote share will be no less than 42%. It can breach 45%. I won’t comment on the number of seats as it depends on the vote transfer from SP to BSP, which is tricky given the history.
- New Ventures: BJP vote share is bound to increase by leaps and bounds in North East, Odisha, and West Bengal.
- Young Voters: We have 8.4cr first-time voters in 2019, which is around 9-10% of the total electorate. First-time voters are more inclined to vote for Modi (not BJP but Modi).
This, in turn, will boost vote share for BJP. If we add all this, the vote share will get a boost of at least 4%, leading to 35% overall. You can hold me accountable on 23rd May 2019.